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统计学一些经典书籍

2013-6-26 9:59:34 阅读757 评论1 262013/06 June26

Probability & Measure:
Probability Theory: Theory and Examples, 3rd edition, Richard Durrett 国内有第2版影印本
Probability and Measure, Patrick Billingsley
Convergence of Probability Measures, Patrick Billingsley
A Course in Probability Theory Revised, Kai Lai Chung

Mathematical Statitsics:
Introduction to Mathematical Statistics, Hogg & Craig (高教社出了第5版影印本)
Mathematical Statistics, Jun Shao
Mathematical Statistics, Peter J. Bickle
作为数理统计学的课本不错。茆诗松、王静龙的《高等数理统计》是国内用得很多的课本。

Inference:
Statistical Inference, Casella & Berger 是国外读统计基本必修的的一本书,国内有影印本。All of Statistics: A Concise Course in Statistical Inference, Larry Wasserman 是一本涵盖面很广的速成式的lecture notes样式的书,偏nonparametric。Theory of Statistics, Schervish 偏Bayesian和decision theory。此外还有: Testing Statistical Hypotheses, Lehmann & Romano, Theory of Point Estimation, Lehmann & Casella。更多的advanced topics举不胜举。

Asymptotics & large sample theory:
A Course in Large Sample Theory, Ferguson 是很好的教本,
Asymptotic Statistics, A. W. van der Vaart
Elements of Large Sample Theory, Lehmann
Approximation Theorems of Mathematical Statistics, Serfling

Linear Models & Regression:
Applied Linear Statistical Models, Kutner et al 或者 Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis, 3ed. Montgomery, Peck, Vining可以作为入门的Regression的教本。
C. R. Rao的Linear Statistical Inference and Its Application很值得看一看。Linear Regression Analysis, Seber & Lee写得也不错。国内写得很不错的教本是王松桂写的《线性模型引论》,科学出版社,但是稍有一些错误。

Generalized Linear Models数McCullagh & Nelder 最经典,入门可以用An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models, 3ed, Dobson & Barnett。
Generalized Linear Models: A Bayesian Perspective, Dey, Ghosh, Mallick
Categorical Data Analysis, Agresti是Categorical的经典。SAS和R做Categorical的手册都有出版,对于应用统计的research来说Categorical是很基本的。

Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models, McCulloch & Seale
Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data, Verbeke & Molenberghs
Semiparametric Regression, Ruppert, Wand, Carroll里面把nonpar & semipar和mixed model统一起来
SAS for Mixed Models, 2ed 和 Mixed Effects Models in S and S-Plus, Pinheiro & Bates 实现

An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis, T.W. Anderson
Aspects of Multivariate Statistical Theory, Muirhead
Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, 6ed, Johnson and Wichern 国内有第6版影印本

Bayesian Data Aanlysis, Gelman, Carlin, Stern, Rubin
Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, 3rd edition, Carlin & Louis
Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, James O. Berger
Theory of Statistics, Schervish
The Bayesian Choice, Christian P. Robert
Bayesian Theory, Bernardo & Smith
Generalized Linear Models: A Bayesian Perspective, Dey, Ghosh, Mallick
MCMC比较好的书有
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, Gilks & Richardson & Spiegelhalter
Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientific Computing, Jun S. Liu
Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Robert & Casella

Nonparametric & Semiparametric:
Semiparametric Regression, Ruppert, Wand, Carroll
Applied Nonparametric Regressions, Wolfgang H?rdle
Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models, Wolfgang H?rdle et al
Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models, Bickel et al
All of Nonparametric Statistics, Larry Wasserman
Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks, Erich L. Lehmann
Generalized Additive Models, Hastie & Tibshirani
此外,推荐 Empirical Likelihood, Owen

Analysis of Longitudinal Data, Diggle, Heagerty, Liang, Zeger
Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Fitzmaurice, Laird, Ware
Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data, Verbeke & Molenberghs
Missing Data & Causal Inference 比较好的书有
Statistical Analysis with Missing Data 2ed, Little & Rubin
Missing Data in Clinical Studies, Molenberghs & Kenward
Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data, Tsiatis
Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives这本书是Rubin这派几代人对causal inference的一个集成
Robins这派的东西就看paper吧,Robins & Morgan 09年也会出一本书
Unified Methods for Censored Longitudinal Data and Causality,

作者  | 2013-6-26 9:59:34 | 阅读(757) |评论(1) | 阅读全文>>

外国博士最新论文下载索引主页

2013-5-19 0:05:43 阅读600 评论1 192013/05 May19

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作者  | 2013-5-19 0:05:43 | 阅读(600) |评论(1) | 阅读全文>>

三个故事,说穿了许多人

2013-5-17 14:27:02 阅读353 评论0 172013/05 May17

(一)
甲不喜欢吃鸡蛋,每次发了鸡蛋都给乙吃。
刚开始乙很感谢,久而久之便习惯了。
习惯了,便理所当然了。
于是,直到有一天,甲将鸡蛋给了丙,乙就不爽了。
她忘记了这个鸡蛋本来就是甲的,甲想给谁都可以。为此,她们大吵一架,从此绝交。

(二)
有一年,很热的夏天,一队人出去漂流。
女孩的拖鞋在玩水的时候,把拖鞋掉下去了,沉底了。
到岸边的时候,全是晒的很烫的鹅卵石,他们要走很长的一段路。
于是,女孩儿就向别人寻求帮忙,可是谁都只有一双拖鞋。
女孩心里很不爽,因为她习惯了向别人求助,而只要撒娇就会得到满意地答复。
可是这次却没有。她忽然觉得这些人都不好,都见死不救。
后来,有一个男孩将自己的拖鞋给了她,然后自己赤脚在那晒得滚烫的鹅卵石上走了很久的路。
还自嘲说是铁板烧。
女孩表示感谢,男孩说,你要记住,没有谁是必须要帮你的。
帮你是出于交情,不帮你是应该。
女孩记住了男孩的话,自此以后学会了对施以援手的人铭记在心,并给以更大的回报。
很多时候,我们总是希望得到别人的好。
一开始,感激不尽。
可是久了,便是习惯了。
习惯了一个人对你的好,便认为是理所应当的。
有一天不对你好了,你便觉得怨怼。
其实,不是别人不好了,而是我们的要求变多了。
习惯了得到,便忘记了感恩。

(三)
傍晚,一只羊独自在山坡上玩。
突然从树木中窜出一只狼来,要吃羊,羊跳起来,拼命用角抵抗,并大声向朋友们求救。
牛在树丛中向这个地方望了一眼,发现是狼,跑走了;
马低头一看,发现是狼,一溜烟跑了;
驴停下脚步,发现是狼,悄悄溜下山坡;
猪经过这里,发现是狼,冲下山坡;
兔子一听,更是一箭一般离去。
山下的狗听见羊的呼喊,急忙奔上坡来,从草丛中闪出,一下咬住了狼的脖子,
狼疼得直叫唤,趁狗换气时,怆惶逃走了。
回到家,朋友都来了,
牛说:你怎么不告诉我?我的角可以剜出狼的肠子。
马说:你怎么不告诉我?我的蹄子能踢碎狼的脑袋。
驴说:你怎么不告诉我?我一声吼叫,吓破狼的胆。
猪说:你怎么不告诉我?我用嘴一拱,就让它摔下山去。
兔子说:你怎么不告诉我?我跑得快,可以传信呀。
在这闹嚷嚷的一群中,唯独没有狗。
真正的友谊,不是花言巧语,而是关键时候拉你的那只手。
那些整日围在你身边,让你有些许小欢喜的朋友,不一定是真正的朋友。
而那些看似远离,实际上时刻关注着你的人,在你快乐的时候,不去奉承你;
你在你需要的时候,默默为你付出、关心你的人,那才是真正的朋友。

作者  | 2013-5-17 14:27:02 | 阅读(353) |评论(0) | 阅读全文>>

Title: Speech on Communists in the State Department

2012-5-7 15:25:59 阅读888 评论0 72012/05 May7

Title: Speech on Communists in the State Department
Author: Joseph McCarthy
Year Published: 1950Joseph McCarthy's Speech on Communists in the State Department (excerpt)

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Tonight as we celebrate the 141st birthday of one of the great men in American history, I would like to be able to talk about what a glorious day today is in the history of the world. As we celebrate the birth of this man, who with his whole heart and soul hated war, I would like to be able to speak of peace in our time, of war being outlawed, and of worldwide disarmament. These would be truly appropriate things to be able to mention as we celebrate the birthday of Abraham Lincoln.

Five years after a world war has been won, men's hearts should anticipate a long peace, and men's minds should be free from the heavy weight that comes with war. But this is not such a period -- for this is not a period of peace. This is a time of the Cold War. This is a time when all the world is split into two vast, increasingly hostile armed camps -- a time of a great armaments race. Today we can almost physically hear the mutterings and rumblings of an invigorated god of war. You can see it, feel it, and hear it all the way from the hills of Indochina, from the shores of Formosa right over into the very heart of Europe itself. ...

Today we are engaged in a final, all-out battle between communistic atheism and Christianity. The modern champions of communism have selected this as the time. And, ladies and gentlemen, the chips are down -- they are truly down.

Lest there be any doubt that the time has been chosen, let us go directly to the leader of communism today -- Joseph Stalin. Here is what he said -- not back in 1928, not before the war, not during the war -- but two years after the last war was ended: "To think that the communist revolution can be carried out peacefully, within the framework of a Christian democracy, means one has either gone out of one's mind and lost all normal understanding, or has grossly and openly repudiated the communist revolution."

And this is what was said by Lenin in 1919, which was also quoted with approval by Stalin in 1947: "We are living," said Lenin, "not merely in a state but in a system of states, and the existence of the Soviet Republic side by side with Christian states for a long time is unthinkable. One or the other must triumph in the end. And before that end supervenes, a series of frightful collisions between the Soviet Republic and the bourgeois states will be inevitable."

Ladies and gentlemen, can there be anyone here tonight who is so blind as to say that the war is not on? Can there be anyone who fails to realize that the communist world has said, "The time is now" -- that this is the time for the showdown between the democratic Christian world and the communist atheistic world? Unless we face this fact, we shall pay the price that must be paid by those who wait too long.

Six years ago, at the time of the first conference to map out peace -- Dumbarton Oaks -- there was within the Soviet orbit 180 million people. Lined up on the anti-totalitarian side there were in the world at that time roughly 1.625 billion people. Today, only six years later, there are 800 million people under the absolute domination of Soviet Russia -- an increase of over 400 percent. On our side, the figure has shrunk to around 500 million. In other words, in less than six years the odds have changed from 9 to 1 in our favor to 8 to 5 against us. This indicates the swiftness of the tempo of communist victories and American defeats in the Cold War. As one of our outstanding historical figures once said, "When a great democracy is destroyed, it will not be because of enemies from without but rather because of enemies from within." The truth of this statement is becoming terrifyingly clear as we see this country each day losing on every front.

At war's end we were physically the strongest nation on Earth and, at least potentially, the most powerful intellectually and morally. Ours could have been the honor of being a beacon in the desert of destruction, a shining, living proof that civilization was not yet ready to destroy itself. Unfortunately, we have failed miserably and tragically to arise to the opportunity.

The reason why we find ourselves in a position of impotency is not because our only powerful, potential enemy has sent men to invade our shores, but rather because of the traitorous actions of those who have been treated so well by this nation. It has not been the less fortunate or members of minority groups who have been selling this nation out, but rather those who have had all the benefits that the wealthiest nation on earth has had to offer -- the finest homes, the finest college education, and the finest jobs in government we can give.

This is glaringly true in the State Department. There the bright young men who are born with silver spoons in their mouths are the ones who have been worst.

Now I know it is very easy for anyone to condemn a particular bureau or department in general terms. Therefore, I would like to cite one rather unusual case -- the case of a man who has done much to shape our foreign policy.

When Chiang Kai-shek was fighting our war, the State Department had in China a young man named John S. Service. His task, obviously, was not to work for the communization of China. Strangely, however, he sent official reports back to the State Department urging that we torpedo our ally Chiang Kai-shek and stating, in effect, that communism was the best hope of China.

Later, this man -- John Service -- was picked up by the Federal Bureau of Investigation for turning over to the communists secret State Department information. Strangely, however, he was never prosecuted. However, Joseph Grew, the undersecretary of state, who insisted on his prosecution, was forced to resign. Two days after, Grew's successor, Dean Acheson, took over as undersecretary of state, this man -- John Service -- who had been picked up by the FBI and who had previously urged that communism was the best hope of China, was not only reinstated in the State Department but promoted; and finally, under Acheson, placed in charge of all placements and promotions. Today, ladies and gentlemen, this man Service is on his way to represent the State Department and Acheson in Calcutta -- by far and away the most important listening post in the Far East.

Now, let's see what happens when individuals with communist connections are forced out of the State Department. Gustave Duran, who was labeled as, I quote, "a notorious international communist," was made assistant secretary of state in charge of Latin American affairs. He was taken into the State Department from his job as a lieutenant colonel in the Communist International Brigade. Finally, after intense congressional pressure and criticism, he resigned in 1946 from the State Department -- and, ladies and gentlemen, where do you think he is now? He took over a high-salaried job as chief of Cultural Activities Section in the office of the assistant secretary-general of the United Nations. ...

This, ladies and gentlemen, gives you somewhat of a picture of the type of individuals who have been helping to shape our foreign policy. In my opinion the State Department, which is one of the most important government departments, is thoroughly infested with communists.

I have in my hand 57 cases of individuals who would appear to be either card-carrying members or certainly loyal to the Communist Party, but who nevertheless are still helping to shape our foreign policy.

One thing to remember in discussing the communists in our government is that we are not dealing with spies who get 30 pieces of silver to steal the blueprints of new weapons. We are dealing with a far more sinister type of activity because it permits the enemy to guide and shape our policy.

This brings us down to the case of one Alger Hiss, who is important not as an individual anymore but rather because he is so representative of a group in the State Department. It is unnecessary to go over the sordid events showing how he sold out the nation which had given him so much. Those are rather fresh in all of our minds. However, it should be remembered that the facts in regard to his connection with this international communist spy ring were made known to the then-Undersecretary of State Berle three days after Hitler and Stalin signed the Russo-German Alliance Pact. At that time one Whittaker Chambers -- who was also part of the spy ring -- apparently decided that with Russia on Hitler's side, he could no longer betray our nation to Russia. He gave Undersecretary of State Berle -- and this is all a matter of record -- practically all, if not more, of the facts upon which Hiss' conviction was based.

Undersecretary Berle promptly contacted Dean Acheson and received word in return that Acheson, and I quote, "could vouch for Hiss absolutely" -- at which time the matter was dropped. And this, you understand, was at a time when Russia was an ally of Germany. This condition existed while Russia and Germany were invading and dismembering Poland, and while the communist groups here were screaming "warmonger" at the United States for their support of the Allied nations.

Again in 1943, the FBI had occasion to investigate the facts surrounding Hiss' contacts with the Russian spy ring. But even after that FBI report was submitted, nothing was done.

Then, late in 1948 -- on August 5 -- when the Un-American Activities Committee called Alger Hiss to give an accounting, President Truman at once issued a presidential directive ordering all government agencies to refuse to turn over any information whatsoever in regard to the communist activities of any government employee to a congressional committee.

Incidentally, even after Hiss was convicted, it is interesting to note that the president still labeled the expose of Hiss as a "red herring."

If time permitted, it might be well to go into detail about the fact that Hiss was Roosevelt's chief adviser at Yalta when Roosevelt was admittedly in ill health and tired physically and mentally ... and when, according to the secretary of state, Hiss and Gromyko drafted the report on the conference.

According to the then-Secretary of State Stettinius, here are some of the things that Hiss helped to decide at Yalta: (1) the establishment of a European High Commission; (2) the treatment of Germany -- this you will recall was the conference at which it was decided that we would occupy Berlin with Russia occupying an area completely encircling the city, which as you know, resulted in the Berlin airlift which cost 31 American lives; (3) the Polish question; (4) the relationship between UNRRA and the Soviet; (5) the rights of Americans on control commissions of Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary; (6) Iran; (7) China -- here's where we gave away Manchuria; (8) Turkish Straits question; (9) international trusteeships; (10) Korea.

Of the results of this conference, Arthur Bliss Lane of the State Department had this to say: "As I glanced over the document, I could not believe my eyes. To me, almost every line spoke of a surrender to Stalin."

As you hear this story of high treason, I know that you are saying to yourself, "Well, why doesn't the Congress do something about it?" Actually, ladies and gentlemen, one of the important reasons for the graft, the corruption, the dishonesty, the disloyalty, the treason in high government positions -- one of the most important reasons why this continues -- is a lack of moral uprising on the part of the 140 million American people. In the light of history, however, this is not hard to explain.

It is the result of an emotional hangover and a temporary moral lapse which follows every war. It is the apathy to evil which people who have been subjected to the tremendous evils of war feel. As the people of the world see mass murder, the destruction of defenseless and innocent people, and all of the crime and lack of morals which go with war, they become numb and apathetic. It has always been thus after war. However, the morals of our people have not been destroyed. They still exist. This cloak of numbness and apathy has only needed a spark to rekindle them. Happily, this spark has finally been supplied.

As you know, very recently the secretary of state proclaimed his loyalty to a man guilty of what has always been considered as the most abominable of all crimes -- of being a traitor to the people who gave him a position of great trust. The secretary of state, in attempting to justify his continued devotion to the man who sold out the Christian world to the atheistic world, referred to Christ's Sermon on the Mount as a justification and reason therefore, and the reaction of the American people to this would have made the heart of Abraham Lincoln happy. When this pompous diplomat in striped pants, with a phony British accent, proclaimed to the American people that Christ on the Mount endorsed communism, high treason, and betrayal of a sacred trust, the blasphemy was so great that it awakened the dormant indignation of the American people.

He has lighted the spark which is resulting in a moral uprising and will end only when the whole sorry mess of twisted warped thinkers are swept from the national scene so that we may have a new birth of national honesty and decency in government.


Civics Online
http://www.civics-online.org

作者  | 2012-5-7 15:25:59 | 阅读(888) |评论(0) | 阅读全文>>

韩国国家教育评价院 韩国语学习电子丛书

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